Benetton Treviso vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Benetton Treviso 81.4%draw 2.5%16.1% ZebreZebre 41.9%draw 2.5%55.6% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Benetton Treviso v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Zebre and 34 Benetton Treviso, half of them between 2 Benetton Treviso and 22 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 11 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-13 on a tight afternoon and 34-23 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Benetton Treviso winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Benetton Treviso, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Benetton Treviso 1413, Zebre 1071 — 342 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso21–0–6Zebre27 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Benetton Treviso by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Benetton Treviso by 16.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Zebre 23–37 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-12-20 | Benetton Treviso 21–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-12-28 | Zebre 12–24 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-12-21 | Benetton Treviso 11–10 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-12-30 | Benetton Treviso 36–14 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.