Benetton Treviso vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Benetton Treviso 69.7%draw 2.5%27.8% ZebreZebre 43.7%draw 2.5%53.8% Benetton TrevisoBenetton Treviso 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Benetton Treviso wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 7 Zebre and 32 Benetton Treviso, with the middle run at 7 Benetton Treviso.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Benetton Treviso are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Benetton Treviso, negative favours Zebre.
Benetton Treviso 1478, Zebre 1309 — 169 points, favouring Benetton Treviso
Benetton Treviso are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Benetton Treviso20–1–6Zebre27 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Benetton Treviso by 7.8 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Benetton Treviso by 13.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-27 | Zebre 23–37 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2025-12-20 | Benetton Treviso 21–15 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2024-12-28 | Zebre 12–24 Benetton Treviso | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Sergio Lanfranchi |
| 2024-12-21 | Benetton Treviso 11–10 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
| 2023-12-30 | Benetton Treviso 36–14 Zebre | United Rugby Championship | Stadio Comunale di Monigo |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 27. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.