Black Lion vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 13.1%draw 2.5%84.4% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 89.5%draw 2.5%8.0% Black LionBlack Lion 10.0%draw 2.5%87.5% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 37 Gloucester Rugby and 1 Black Lion, half of them between 24 Gloucester Rugby and 3 Gloucester Rugby, with the middle run at 12 Gloucester Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 79 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-16 on a tight afternoon and 39-27 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Black Lion 820, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 864 points, favouring Gloucester Rugby
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion0–0–1Gloucester Rugby1 meeting, 2023 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 5.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-09 | Black Lion 10–15 Gloucester Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.