Black Lion vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 9.4%draw 2.5%88.1% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 91.3%draw 2.5%6.2% Black LionBlack Lion 7.6%draw 2.5%89.9% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 39 Montpellier Herault and level, half of them between 25 Montpellier Herault and 4 Montpellier Herault, with the middle run at 12 Montpellier Herault.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 35 and 81 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 28-16 on a tight afternoon and 41-29 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Black Lion 820, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 1152 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion0–0–1Montpellier Herault1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Montpellier Herault by 11.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-06 | Black Lion 13–24 Montpellier Herault | European Challenge Cup | Avchala Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.