Black Lion vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 29.1%draw 2.5%68.4% ScarletsScarlets 82.9%draw 2.5%14.6% Black LionBlack Lion 21.1%draw 2.5%76.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 29 Scarlets and 9 Black Lion, half of them between 16 Scarlets and 2 Black Lion, with the middle run at 6 Scarlets.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Black Lion 820, Scarlets 1273 — 453 points, favouring Scarlets
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion1–0–1Scarlets2 meetings, 2023 to 2024 · Scarlets by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-15 | Scarlets 36–18 Black Lion | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
| 2023-12-15 | Scarlets 7–23 Black Lion | European Challenge Cup | Parc y Scarlets |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.