Black Lion vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 33.4%draw 2.5%64.1% VannesVannes 84.0%draw 2.5%13.5% Black LionBlack Lion 22.7%draw 2.5%74.8% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Vannes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 24 Vannes and 13 Black Lion, half of them between 14 Vannes and 3 Black Lion, with the middle run at 4 Vannes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Vannes.
Black Lion 820, Vannes 1280 — 460 points, favouring Vannes
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Black Lion1–0–0Vannes1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Black Lion by 3.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-07 | Black Lion 22–19 Vannes | European Challenge Cup | Mikheil Meskhi Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.