Black Lion vs Zebre
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Black Lion 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% ZebreZebre 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% Black LionBlack Lion 33.0%draw 2.5%64.5% ZebreEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Black Lion v Zebre, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Black Lion wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Zebre and 16 Black Lion, half of them between 8 Zebre and 8 Black Lion, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Black Lion are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Black Lion winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Black Lion, a bar to the left helps Zebre.
Black Lion 820, Zebre 1071 — 251 points, favouring Zebre
Black Lion are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Zebre are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Black Lion are on 48.4%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Black Lion0–0–1Zebre1 meeting, 2026 to 2026 · Zebre by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | Black Lion 14–28 Zebre | European Challenge Cup | Avchala Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.