Blues vs Brumbies
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 61.4%draw 2.5%36.1% BrumbiesBrumbies 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% BluesBlues 49.0%draw 2.5%48.5% BrumbiesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Brumbies, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Brumbies and 20 Blues, half of them between 5 Brumbies and 11 Blues, with the middle run at 3 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Brumbies.
Blues 1548, Brumbies 1558 — 10 points, favouring Brumbies
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues8–0–4Brumbies12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 8.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Blues by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-28 | Brumbies 30–27 Blues | Super Rugby | GIO Stadium |
| 2025-03-07 | Blues 20–21 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-06-14 | Blues 34–20 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-04-20 | Blues 46–7 Brumbies | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2023-03-05 | Blues 20–25 Brumbies | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.