Blues vs Cheetahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 75.7%draw 2.5%21.8% CheetahsCheetahs 43.4%draw 2.5%54.1% BluesBlues 65.2%draw 2.5%32.3% CheetahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Cheetahs and 34 Blues, with the middle run at 9 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Cheetahs.
Blues 1491, Cheetahs 1260 — 231 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues1–0–1Cheetahs2 meetings, 2015 to 2017 · Blues by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-05-12 | Blues 50–32 Cheetahs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2015-02-27 | Cheetahs 25–24 Blues | Super Rugby | Toyota Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.