Blues vs Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 39.2%draw 2.5%58.3% ChiefsChiefs 78.1%draw 2.5%19.4% BluesBlues 28.8%draw 2.5%68.7% ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Chiefs and 14 Blues, half of them between 12 Chiefs and 5 Blues, with the middle run at 3 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-19 on a tight afternoon and 33-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Chiefs.
Blues 1548, Chiefs 1840 — 292 points, favouring Chiefs
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–1–14Chiefs24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Blues by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Chiefs 59–34 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-02-14 | Blues 15–19 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-06-07 | Chiefs 19–20 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-03-15 | Chiefs 32–31 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-02-15 | Blues 14–25 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.