Blues vs Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 36.7%draw 2.5%60.8% ChiefsChiefs 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% BluesBlues 29.9%draw 2.5%67.6% ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Chiefs and 14 Blues, with the middle run at 3 Chiefs.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Chiefs.
Blues 1491, Chiefs 1775 — 285 points, favouring Chiefs
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–1–14Chiefs24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 0.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Blues by 2.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Chiefs 59–34 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2026-02-14 | Blues 15–19 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-06-07 | Chiefs 19–20 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-03-15 | Chiefs 32–31 Blues | Super Rugby | FMG Stadium Waikato |
| 2025-02-15 | Blues 14–25 Chiefs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.