Blues vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 40.1%draw 2.5%57.4% CrusadersCrusaders 71.0%draw 2.5%26.5% BluesBlues 33.0%draw 2.5%64.5% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 20 Crusaders and 15 Blues, with the middle run at 2 Crusaders.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-19 on a tight afternoon and 32-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Crusaders.
Blues 1491, Crusaders 1717 — 226 points, favouring Crusaders
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues3–0–23Crusaders26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 11.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Crusaders by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Crusaders 52–31 Blues | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-05-08 | Crusaders 36–20 Blues | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-03-07 | Blues 29–13 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-06-13 | Crusaders 21–14 Blues | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-18 | Crusaders 25–22 Blues | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.