Blues vs Crusaders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% CrusadersCrusaders 77.1%draw 2.5%20.4% BluesBlues 34.0%draw 2.5%63.5% CrusadersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Crusaders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 21 Crusaders and 15 Blues, half of them between 10 Crusaders and 7 Blues, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-21 on a tight afternoon and 32-32 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Crusaders.
Blues 1548, Crusaders 1777 — 228 points, favouring Crusaders
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Crusaders are under 50% and still the likelier winner: Blues are on 48.7%, and a draw takes the other 2.5%.
Head to head
Blues3–0–23Crusaders26 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Crusaders by 11.1 on average
Last 10: 2–0–8 · Crusaders by 8.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Crusaders 52–31 Blues | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-05-08 | Crusaders 36–20 Blues | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2026-03-07 | Blues 29–13 Crusaders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-06-13 | Crusaders 21–14 Blues | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
| 2025-04-18 | Crusaders 25–22 Blues | Super Rugby | Apollo Projects Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.