Blues vs Fijian Drua
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 77.4%draw 2.5%20.1% Fijian DruaFijian Drua 44.6%draw 2.5%52.9% BluesBlues 66.7%draw 2.5%30.8% Fijian DruaEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Fijian Drua, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Fijian Drua and 34 Blues, half of them between 1 Blues and 21 Blues, with the middle run at 9 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-17 on a tight afternoon and 37-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Fijian Drua.
Blues 1548, Fijian Drua 1225 — 323 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues6–0–0Fijian Drua6 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Blues by 23.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Blues 40–15 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-05-09 | Fijian Drua 5–34 Blues | Super Rugby | HFC Bank Stadium |
| 2024-06-08 | Blues 36–5 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-02-24 | Blues 34–10 Fijian Drua | Super Rugby | Semenoff Stadium |
| 2023-04-29 | Fijian Drua 14–30 Blues | Super Rugby | Churchill Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 6. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.