Blues vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 71.9%draw 2.5%25.6% HighlandersHighlanders 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% BluesBlues 60.3%draw 2.5%37.2% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Highlanders, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Highlanders and 34 Blues, half of them between 1 Highlanders and 20 Blues, with the middle run at 8 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 34 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-17 on a tight afternoon and 36-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Highlanders.
Blues 1548, Highlanders 1314 — 234 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues14–0–9Highlanders23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Blues by 14.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Blues 47–40 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-02-22 | Highlanders 29–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Blues 47–13 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-03-01 | Highlanders 29–37 Blues | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-06-02 | Blues 16–9 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.