Blues vs Highlanders
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 68.9%draw 2.5%28.6% HighlandersHighlanders 50.9%draw 2.5%46.6% BluesBlues 58.0%draw 2.5%39.5% HighlandersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Highlanders and 30 Blues, with the middle run at 7 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Highlanders.
Blues 1491, Highlanders 1328 — 163 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues14–0–9Highlanders23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 9–0–1 · Blues by 14.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Blues 47–40 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-02-22 | Highlanders 29–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Forsyth Barr Stadium |
| 2024-05-18 | Blues 47–13 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-03-01 | Highlanders 29–37 Blues | Super Rugby | AAMI Park |
| 2023-06-02 | Blues 16–9 Highlanders | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.