Blues vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 41.2%draw 2.5%56.3% HurricanesHurricanes 80.5%draw 2.5%17.0% BluesBlues 28.3%draw 2.5%69.2% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Hurricanes, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 23 Hurricanes and 14 Blues, half of them between 12 Hurricanes and 5 Blues, with the middle run at 3 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 77 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-20 on a tight afternoon and 34-31 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Hurricanes.
Blues 1548, Hurricanes 1912 — 364 points, favouring Hurricanes
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–0–15Hurricanes24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Hurricanes by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Hurricanes 57–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-05-16 | Blues 24–47 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2026-04-11 | Hurricanes 42–19 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-04-05 | Blues 19–18 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Hurricanes 29–33 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.