Blues vs Hurricanes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 28.9%draw 2.5%68.6% HurricanesHurricanes 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% BluesBlues 22.9%draw 2.5%74.6% HurricanesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 22 Hurricanes and 13 Blues, with the middle run at 5 Hurricanes.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Hurricanes.
Blues 1491, Hurricanes 1864 — 373 points, favouring Hurricanes
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–0–15Hurricanes24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Hurricanes by 5.2 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Hurricanes by 6.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | Hurricanes 57–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2026-05-16 | Blues 24–47 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2026-04-11 | Hurricanes 42–19 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
| 2025-04-05 | Blues 19–18 Hurricanes | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2025-03-01 | Hurricanes 29–33 Blues | Super Rugby | Hnry Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.