Blues vs Lions
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 44.5%draw 2.5%53.0% LionsLions 73.6%draw 2.5%23.9% BluesBlues 33.9%draw 2.5%63.6% LionsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 18 Lions and 16 Blues, with the middle run at 1 Lions.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Lions.
Blues 1491, Lions 1678 — 188 points, favouring Lions
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues2–0–2Lions4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Lions by 1.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-03-14 | Blues 43–10 Lions | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2018-03-10 | Lions 35–38 Blues | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2016-05-14 | Lions 43–5 Blues | Super Rugby | Ellis Park |
| 2015-03-07 | Blues 10–13 Lions | Super Rugby | North Harbour Stadium |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.