Blues vs New South Wales Waratahs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 72.4%draw 2.5%25.1% New South Wales WaratahsNew South Wales Waratahs 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% BluesBlues 58.9%draw 2.5%38.6% New South Wales WaratahsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 New South Wales Waratahs and 20 Blues, with the middle run at 5 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours New South Wales Waratahs.
Blues 1491, New South Wales Waratahs 1311 — 180 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues11–0–1New South Wales Waratahs12 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 11.4 on average
Last 10: 10–0–0 · Blues by 14.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-21 | New South Wales Waratahs 20–35 Blues | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-03-16 | New South Wales Waratahs 10–12 Blues | Super Rugby | Allianz Stadium |
| 2023-06-09 | Blues 41–12 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2023-04-22 | Blues 55–21 New South Wales Waratahs | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2022-05-28 | New South Wales Waratahs 17–20 Blues | Super Rugby | Leichhardt Oval |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 12. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.