Blues vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 65.9%draw 2.5%31.6% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% BluesBlues 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Queensland Reds and 20 Blues, with the middle run at 4 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Queensland Reds.
Blues 1491, Queensland Reds 1454 — 37 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues7–1–2Queensland Reds10 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Blues by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Blues 36–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-04-25 | Queensland Reds 35–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Queensland Reds 34–41 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2023-05-19 | Queensland Reds 26–45 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2022-05-14 | Blues 53–26 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.