Blues vs Queensland Reds
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 64.2%draw 2.5%33.3% Queensland RedsQueensland Reds 58.3%draw 2.5%39.2% BluesBlues 51.9%draw 2.5%45.6% Queensland RedsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Queensland Reds, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Queensland Reds and 24 Blues, half of them between 4 Queensland Reds and 13 Blues, with the middle run at 4 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-19 on a tight afternoon and 34-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Queensland Reds.
Blues 1548, Queensland Reds 1460 — 88 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues7–1–2Queensland Reds10 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Blues by 7.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Blues 36–33 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | One NZ Stadium |
| 2025-04-25 | Queensland Reds 35–21 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Queensland Reds 34–41 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2023-05-19 | Queensland Reds 26–45 Blues | Super Rugby | Suncorp Stadium |
| 2022-05-14 | Blues 53–26 Queensland Reds | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 10. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.