Blues vs Sharks
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 43.8%draw 2.5%53.7% SharksSharks 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% BluesBlues 34.1%draw 2.5%63.4% SharksEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 19 Sharks and 16 Blues, with the middle run at 1 Sharks.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Sharks.
Blues 1491, Sharks 1613 — 122 points, favouring Sharks
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues1–0–1Sharks2 meetings, 2016 to 2019 · Sharks by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-02-23 | Sharks 26–7 Blues | Super Rugby | Hollywoodbets Kings Park |
| 2016-04-16 | Blues 23–18 Sharks | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.