Blues vs Stormers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 42.7%draw 2.5%54.8% StormersStormers 80.4%draw 2.5%17.1% BluesBlues 29.7%draw 2.5%67.8% StormersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Stormers and 13 Blues, with the middle run at 1 Stormers.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Blues are not favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Stormers.
Blues 1491, Stormers 1716 — 225 points, favouring Stormers
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues2–0–3Stormers5 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Stormers by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-02-29 | Stormers 14–33 Blues | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2019-03-30 | Blues 24–9 Stormers | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2018-03-17 | Stormers 37–20 Blues | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2017-05-19 | Stormers 30–22 Blues | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
| 2015-02-21 | Stormers 27–16 Blues | Super Rugby | DHL Newlands |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.