Blues vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Blues 69.8%draw 2.5%27.7% Western ForceWestern Force 52.6%draw 2.5%44.9% BluesBlues 57.5%draw 2.5%40.0% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Blues v Western Force, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Western Force and 23 Blues, half of them between 2 Western Force and 13 Blues, with the middle run at 4 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Blues winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Blues, a bar to the left helps Western Force.
Blues 1548, Western Force 1471 — 77 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–0–0Western Force9 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Western Force 32–42 Blues | Super Rugby | HIF Health Insurance Oval |
| 2025-05-02 | Blues 40–19 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-04-05 | Blues 50–3 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2023-03-26 | Blues 30–17 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2022-04-29 | Western Force 18–22 Blues | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.