Blues vs Western Force
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Blues 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% Western ForceWestern Force 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% BluesBlues 49.7%draw 2.5%47.8% Western ForceEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Blues wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Western Force and 18 Blues, with the middle run at 3 Blues.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Blues are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Blues, negative favours Western Force.
Blues 1491, Western Force 1463 — 28 points, favouring Blues
Blues are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Blues9–0–0Western Force9 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Blues by 15.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Western Force 32–42 Blues | Super Rugby | HIF Health Insurance Oval |
| 2025-05-02 | Blues 40–19 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2024-04-05 | Blues 50–3 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2023-03-26 | Blues 30–17 Western Force | Super Rugby | Eden Park |
| 2022-04-29 | Western Force 18–22 Blues | Super Rugby | HBF Park |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 9. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.