Bordeaux Begles vs Bristol Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 78.8%draw 2.5%18.7% Bristol RugbyBordeaux Begles 67.9%draw 2.5%29.6% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Bristol Rugby and 33 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Bristol Rugby.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Bristol Rugby 1588 — 325 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–1Bristol Rugby4 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Bristol Rugby 15–27 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2023-12-16 | Bordeaux Begles 36–17 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2021-04-04 | Bordeaux Begles 36–17 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2020-09-25 | Bristol Rugby 37–20 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.