Bordeaux Begles vs Bristol Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 70.4%draw 2.5%27.1% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 53.5%draw 2.5%44.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 59.6%draw 2.5%37.9% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Bristol Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Bristol Rugby and 30 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bristol Rugby and 18 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 7 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Bristol Rugby.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Bristol Rugby 1762 — 63 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–1Bristol Rugby4 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 8.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-18 | Bristol Rugby 15–27 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2023-12-16 | Bordeaux Begles 36–17 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2021-04-04 | Bordeaux Begles 36–17 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2020-09-25 | Bristol Rugby 37–20 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.