Bordeaux Begles vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 83.4%draw 2.5%14.1% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 48.3%draw 2.5%49.2% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Castres Olympique, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Castres Olympique and 35 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 3 Bordeaux Begles and 23 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 11 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-14 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Castres Olympique.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Castres Olympique 1456 — 369 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles13–1–9Castres Olympique23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 7–1–2 · Bordeaux Begles by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Bordeaux Begles 57–32 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-11-01 | Castres Olympique 26–28 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-05-17 | Bordeaux Begles 34–29 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-12-21 | Castres Olympique 3–13 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-02-24 | Castres Olympique 41–12 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.