Bordeaux Begles vs Castres Olympique
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 79.4%draw 2.5%18.1% Castres OlympiqueCastres Olympique 31.4%draw 2.5%66.1% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% Castres OlympiqueEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Castres Olympique and 29 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 8 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Castres Olympique.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Castres Olympique 1485 — 428 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles13–1–9Castres Olympique23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 7–1–2 · Bordeaux Begles by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-14 | Bordeaux Begles 57–32 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-11-01 | Castres Olympique 26–28 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2025-05-17 | Bordeaux Begles 34–29 Castres Olympique | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-12-21 | Castres Olympique 3–13 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
| 2024-02-24 | Castres Olympique 41–12 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Pierre Fabre |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.