Bordeaux Begles vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 51.6%draw 2.5%45.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 57.3%draw 2.5%40.2% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Clermont Auvergne and 28 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 6 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Clermont Auvergne.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Clermont Auvergne 1729 — 184 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles12–4–12Clermont Auvergne28 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Clermont Auvergne by 0.6 on average
Last 10: 5–1–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 4.2 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-06 | Bordeaux Begles 31–34 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-12-27 | Clermont Auvergne 34–19 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2025-02-23 | Bordeaux Begles 22–18 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-11-02 | Clermont Auvergne 32–27 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2024-04-21 | Bordeaux Begles 41–7 Clermont Auvergne | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 28. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.