Bordeaux Begles vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 87.7%draw 2.5%9.8% DragonsDragons 24.6%draw 2.5%72.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 78.7%draw 2.5%18.8% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 37 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 12 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Dragons.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Dragons 1369 — 544 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–0–1Dragons3 meetings, 2018 to 2020 · Bordeaux Begles by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-19 | Bordeaux Begles 47–8 Dragons | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2018-01-20 | Dragons 33–17 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-01-13 | Bordeaux Begles 36–28 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.