Bordeaux Begles vs Dragons
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 83.2%draw 2.5%14.3% DragonsDragons 33.0%draw 2.5%64.5% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 76.4%draw 2.5%21.1% DragonsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Dragons, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Dragons and 35 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 2 Bordeaux Begles and 22 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 11 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Dragons.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Dragons 1330 — 495 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–0–1Dragons3 meetings, 2018 to 2020 · Bordeaux Begles by 10.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-12-19 | Bordeaux Begles 47–8 Dragons | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2018-01-20 | Dragons 33–17 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Rodney Parade |
| 2018-01-13 | Bordeaux Begles 36–28 Dragons | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.