Bordeaux Begles vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 79.1%draw 2.5%18.4% EdinburghEdinburgh 32.1%draw 2.5%65.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 73.3%draw 2.5%24.2% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Edinburgh and 37 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 11 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Edinburgh.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Edinburgh 1496 — 417 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–1–1Edinburgh4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-19 | Bordeaux Begles 23–14 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2020-01-11 | Bordeaux Begles 32–17 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2019-11-22 | Edinburgh 16–16 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-01-23 | Edinburgh 38–20 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.