Bordeaux Begles vs Edinburgh
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% EdinburghEdinburgh 47.6%draw 2.5%49.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% EdinburghEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Edinburgh, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Edinburgh and 35 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 21 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Edinburgh.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Edinburgh 1528 — 297 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–1–1Edinburgh4 meetings, 2015 to 2020 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020-09-19 | Bordeaux Begles 23–14 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2020-01-11 | Bordeaux Begles 32–17 Edinburgh | European Challenge Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2019-11-22 | Edinburgh 16–16 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
| 2015-01-23 | Edinburgh 38–20 Bordeaux Begles | European Challenge Cup | Scottish Gas Murrayfield |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.