Bordeaux Begles vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 68.5%draw 2.5%29.0% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 53.8%draw 2.5%43.7% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 55.4%draw 2.5%42.1% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Exeter Chiefs and 29 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 6 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Exeter Chiefs.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Exeter Chiefs 1754 — 159 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–2Exeter Chiefs5 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Exeter Chiefs 17–69 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2016-12-17 | Bordeaux Begles 12–20 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2016-12-11 | Exeter Chiefs 7–13 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2016-01-16 | Bordeaux Begles 34–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2015-11-21 | Exeter Chiefs 34–19 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.