Bordeaux Begles vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 70.0%draw 2.5%27.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 49.5%draw 2.5%48.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 59.4%draw 2.5%38.1% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Exeter Chiefs and 30 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Exeter Chiefs and 18 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 7 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 109 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–2Exeter Chiefs5 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 8.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-11 | Exeter Chiefs 17–69 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2016-12-17 | Bordeaux Begles 12–20 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2016-12-11 | Exeter Chiefs 7–13 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
| 2016-01-16 | Bordeaux Begles 34–27 Exeter Chiefs | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2015-11-21 | Exeter Chiefs 34–19 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Sandy Park |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.