Bordeaux Begles vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 34.3%draw 2.5%63.2% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 71.5%draw 2.5%26.0% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 3 Gloucester Rugby and 33 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-15 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 393 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–0–2Gloucester Rugby2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Gloucester Rugby by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-21 | Bordeaux Begles 17–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2022-12-10 | Gloucester Rugby 22–17 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.