Bordeaux Begles vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 68.1%draw 2.5%29.4% Gloucester RugbyGloucester Rugby 58.1%draw 2.5%39.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 53.2%draw 2.5%44.3% Gloucester RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Gloucester Rugby, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Gloucester Rugby and 24 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 2 Gloucester Rugby and 14 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 5 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Gloucester Rugby.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Gloucester Rugby 1684 — 141 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–1–2Gloucester Rugby3 meetings, 2022 to 2026 · Gloucester Rugby by 4.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Gloucester Rugby 36–36 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
| 2023-01-21 | Bordeaux Begles 17–26 Gloucester Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2022-12-10 | Gloucester Rugby 22–17 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Kingsholm |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.