Bordeaux Begles vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 72.0%draw 2.5%25.5% HarlequinsHarlequins 46.1%draw 2.5%51.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 62.0%draw 2.5%35.5% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Harlequins and 30 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 7 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 34-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Harlequins.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Harlequins 1668 — 245 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–0–1Harlequins1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Harlequins by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Bordeaux Begles 41–42 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.