Bordeaux Begles vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% HarlequinsHarlequins 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Harlequins and 32 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 20 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 8 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-16 on a tight afternoon and 35-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Harlequins 1542 — 283 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles0–0–1Harlequins1 meeting, 2024 to 2024 · Harlequins by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-13 | Bordeaux Begles 41–42 Harlequins | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.