Bordeaux Begles vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
La Rochelle host Bordeaux Begles on Sunday 25 October at Stade Marcel-Deflandre, La Rochelle, so La Rochelle are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bordeaux Begles 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% La RochelleLa Rochelle 73.8%draw 2.5%23.7% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 45.6%draw 2.5%51.9% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for La Rochelle v Bordeaux Begles, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are La Rochelle wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Bordeaux Begles and 25 La Rochelle, half of them between level and 15 La Rochelle, with the middle run at 6 La Rochelle.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why La Rochelle are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of La Rochelle winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps La Rochelle, a bar to the left helps Bordeaux Begles.
La Rochelle 1820, Bordeaux Begles 1825 — 5 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
La Rochelle are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles7–0–17La Rochelle24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · La Rochelle by 8.0 on average
Last 10: 3–0–7 · La Rochelle by 7.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-18 | La Rochelle 45–15 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2025-09-06 | Bordeaux Begles 23–18 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-04-26 | Bordeaux Begles 10–21 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-10-20 | La Rochelle 32–22 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2024-05-11 | Bordeaux Begles 34–14 La Rochelle | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.