Bordeaux Begles vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 82.8%draw 2.5%14.7% LyonLyon 42.4%draw 2.5%55.1% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 68.5%draw 2.5%29.0% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Lyon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Lyon and 30 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 2 Bordeaux Begles and 19 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 9 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Lyon.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Lyon 1487 — 338 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles14–0–9Lyon23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 5.4 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 6.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Bordeaux Begles 51–28 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2026-03-28 | Lyon 17–21 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-10-04 | Bordeaux Begles 32–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-01-25 | Bordeaux Begles 20–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-09-14 | Lyon 28–26 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.