Bordeaux Begles vs Lyon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% LyonLyon 28.1%draw 2.5%69.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% LyonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Lyon and 36 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 11 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Lyon.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Lyon 1429 — 484 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles13–0–9Lyon22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 4.6 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 6.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Lyon 17–21 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2025-10-04 | Bordeaux Begles 32–20 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-01-25 | Bordeaux Begles 20–22 Lyon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-09-14 | Lyon 28–26 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
| 2024-03-30 | Lyon 27–10 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Matmut Stadium de Gerland |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.