Bordeaux Begles vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 59.9%draw 2.5%37.6% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 42.0%draw 2.5%55.5% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Montpellier Herault, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Montpellier Herault and 21 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 5 Montpellier Herault and 11 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 3 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Montpellier Herault.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Montpellier Herault 1972 — 148 points, favouring Montpellier Herault
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles8–2–12Montpellier Herault22 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Montpellier Herault by 0.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bordeaux Begles 21–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-11-29 | Montpellier Herault 28–24 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-05-11 | Montpellier Herault 46–27 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-11-30 | Bordeaux Begles 9–6 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-03-09 | Montpellier Herault 10–3 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 22. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.