Bordeaux Begles vs Montpellier Herault
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 58.6%draw 2.5%38.9% Montpellier HeraultMontpellier Herault 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 48.7%draw 2.5%48.8% Montpellier HeraultEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Montpellier Herault and 24 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 3 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Montpellier Herault.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Montpellier Herault 1882 — 31 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles7–2–12Montpellier Herault21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.0 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Montpellier Herault by 0.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-25 | Bordeaux Begles 21–23 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-11-29 | Montpellier Herault 28–24 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2025-05-11 | Montpellier Herault 46–27 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2024-03-09 | Montpellier Herault 10–3 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Septeo Stadium |
| 2023-11-04 | Bordeaux Begles 26–13 Montpellier Herault | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.