Bordeaux Begles vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 61.3%draw 2.5%36.2% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 57.6%draw 2.5%39.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 50.6%draw 2.5%46.9% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Northampton Saints and 26 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 4 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 29 and 68 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Northampton Saints.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Northampton Saints 1918 — 5 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–0Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 11.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Bordeaux Begles 50–28 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-05-24 | Northampton Saints 20–28 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Principality Stadium |
| 2020-12-11 | Northampton Saints 12–16 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.