Bordeaux Begles vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 58.7%draw 2.5%38.8% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 67.6%draw 2.5%29.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 44.7%draw 2.5%52.8% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Northampton Saints and 28 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 4 Northampton Saints and 15 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 4 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 33-29 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Northampton Saints 1957 — 132 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles3–0–0Northampton Saints3 meetings, 2020 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 11.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-11 | Bordeaux Begles 50–28 Northampton Saints | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-05-24 | Northampton Saints 20–28 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | Principality Stadium |
| 2020-12-11 | Northampton Saints 12–16 Bordeaux Begles | European Champions Cup | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.