Bordeaux Begles vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 72.6%draw 2.5%24.9% PauPau 43.5%draw 2.5%54.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 64.4%draw 2.5%33.1% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 8 Pau and 30 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 7 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Pau.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Pau 1640 — 273 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles11–0–10Pau21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Pau by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Pau 39–17 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-11-21 | Bordeaux Begles 33–34 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-04-19 | Pau 22–26 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-10-26 | Bordeaux Begles 19–6 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-02-17 | Bordeaux Begles 10–20 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.