Bordeaux Begles vs Pau
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 69.4%draw 2.5%28.1% PauPau 68.6%draw 2.5%28.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 50.1%draw 2.5%47.4% PauEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Pau, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Pau and 26 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 2 Pau and 15 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 6 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Pau.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Pau 1818 — 7 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles11–0–10Pau21 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.1 on average
Last 10: 4–0–6 · Pau by 2.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | Pau 39–17 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2025-11-21 | Bordeaux Begles 33–34 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-04-19 | Pau 22–26 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade du Hameau |
| 2024-10-26 | Bordeaux Begles 19–6 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-02-17 | Bordeaux Begles 10–20 Pau | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.