Bordeaux Begles vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 86.4%draw 2.5%11.1% PerpignanBordeaux Begles 79.8%draw 2.5%17.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 38 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 13 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Perpignan.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Perpignan 1346 — 567 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles10–1–3Perpignan14 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 13.0 on average
Last 10: 7–0–3 · Bordeaux Begles by 15.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Bordeaux Begles 37–32 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-10-18 | Perpignan 12–27 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-03-01 | Perpignan 17–29 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-10-12 | Bordeaux Begles 66–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-06-01 | Perpignan 37–30 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 14. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.