Bordeaux Begles vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 84.1%draw 2.5%13.4% PerpignanPerpignan 39.8%draw 2.5%57.7% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 72.8%draw 2.5%24.7% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Perpignan and 36 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 3 Bordeaux Begles and 24 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 12 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-14 on a tight afternoon and 37-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Perpignan 1424 — 401 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles10–1–4Perpignan15 meetings, 2018 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 11.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 11.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Perpignan 38–25 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2026-05-16 | Bordeaux Begles 37–32 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-10-18 | Perpignan 12–27 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2025-03-01 | Perpignan 17–29 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Aime Giral |
| 2024-10-12 | Bordeaux Begles 66–12 Perpignan | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 15. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.