Bordeaux Begles vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 71.5%draw 2.5%26.0% Racing 92Racing 92 49.6%draw 2.5%47.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 59.1%draw 2.5%38.4% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 10 Racing 92 and 28 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 7 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-16 on a tight afternoon and 33-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Racing 92.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Racing 92 1707 — 206 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles11–0–13Racing 9224 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 3.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 9.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | Bordeaux Begles 62–20 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-09-14 | Racing 92 44–32 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-03-30 | Racing 92 36–31 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-09-21 | Bordeaux Begles 52–34 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-06-16 | Bordeaux Begles 31–17 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.