Bordeaux Begles vs Racing 92
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 77.8%draw 2.5%19.7% Racing 92Racing 92 59.0%draw 2.5%38.5% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 58.8%draw 2.5%38.7% Racing 92Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
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Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Racing 92, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 5 Racing 92 and 32 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 20 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 9 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 34-25 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Racing 92.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Racing 92 1632 — 193 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles13–0–13Racing 9226 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 5.5 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 13.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Bordeaux Begles 64–5 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2026-01-03 | Bordeaux Begles 62–20 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-09-14 | Racing 92 44–32 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2025-03-30 | Racing 92 36–31 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Paris La Defense Arena |
| 2024-09-21 | Bordeaux Begles 52–34 Racing 92 | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 26. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.