Bordeaux Begles vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 84.3%draw 2.5%13.2% ScarletsScarlets 29.5%draw 2.5%68.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 78.5%draw 2.5%19.0% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Scarlets, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Scarlets and 36 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 3 Bordeaux Begles and 22 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 11 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 38-27 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Scarlets.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Scarlets 1273 — 552 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–0–0Scarlets2 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 32.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Bordeaux Begles 50–21 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2022-01-16 | Bordeaux Begles 45–10 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.