Bordeaux Begles vs Scarlets
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 89.0%draw 2.5%8.5% ScarletsScarlets 22.6%draw 2.5%74.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 80.1%draw 2.5%17.4% ScarletsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between level and 38 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 13 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 27-14 on a tight afternoon and 39-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Scarlets.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Scarlets 1334 — 579 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–0–0Scarlets2 meetings, 2022 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 32.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-13 | Bordeaux Begles 50–21 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2022-01-16 | Bordeaux Begles 45–10 Scarlets | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.