Bordeaux Begles vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 63.6%draw 2.5%33.9% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 54.5%draw 2.5%43.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 53.3%draw 2.5%44.2% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Stade Francais Paris and 25 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 4 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Stade Francais Paris.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Stade Francais Paris 1775 — 138 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles12–1–10Stade Francais Paris23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 6.1 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Bordeaux Begles by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Bordeaux Begles 28–33 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-09-27 | Stade Francais Paris 28–7 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-01-04 | Stade Francais Paris 19–46 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-09-07 | Bordeaux Begles 46–26 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-06-22 | Stade Francais Paris 20–22 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.