Bordeaux Begles vs Stade Francais Paris
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 73.9%draw 2.5%23.6% Stade Francais ParisStade Francais Paris 62.6%draw 2.5%34.9% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 54.0%draw 2.5%43.5% Stade Francais ParisEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Stade Francais Paris, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 11 Stade Francais Paris and 27 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between level and 16 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 6 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 70 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-16 on a tight afternoon and 32-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Stade Francais Paris.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Stade Francais Paris 1731 — 94 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles14–0–10Stade Francais Paris24 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Bordeaux Begles by 7.5 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Bordeaux Begles by 4.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Bordeaux Begles 40–10 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2026-01-24 | Bordeaux Begles 28–33 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-09-27 | Stade Francais Paris 28–7 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2025-01-04 | Stade Francais Paris 19–46 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Jean Bouin |
| 2024-09-07 | Bordeaux Begles 46–26 Stade Francais Paris | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 24. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.