Bordeaux Begles vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 60.8%draw 2.5%36.7% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 77.1%draw 2.5%20.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 40.7%draw 2.5%56.8% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Stade Toulousain, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Stade Toulousain and 23 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 5 Stade Toulousain and 12 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 3 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Stade Toulousain.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Stade Toulousain 1992 — 167 points, favouring Stade Toulousain
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles10–1–19Stade Toulousain30 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 6.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Stade Toulousain by 7.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Stade Toulousain 48–12 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2026-04-12 | Bordeaux Begles 30–15 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2026-03-22 | Bordeaux Begles 44–20 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2025-10-12 | Stade Toulousain 56–13 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-06-28 | Stade Toulousain 39–33 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade de France |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 30. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.