Bordeaux Begles vs Stade Toulousain
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 59.6%draw 2.5%37.9% Stade ToulousainStade Toulousain 61.0%draw 2.5%36.5% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 48.1%draw 2.5%49.4% Stade ToulousainEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Stade Toulousain and 25 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 3 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 30 and 69 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-17 on a tight afternoon and 31-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Stade Toulousain.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Stade Toulousain 1863 — 50 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles10–1–18Stade Toulousain29 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Stade Toulousain by 5.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Stade Toulousain by 4.1 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-12 | Bordeaux Begles 30–15 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2026-03-22 | Bordeaux Begles 44–20 Stade Toulousain | Top 14 | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
| 2025-10-12 | Stade Toulousain 56–13 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Ernest-Wallon |
| 2025-06-28 | Stade Toulousain 39–33 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade de France |
| 2025-05-04 | Bordeaux Begles 35–18 Stade Toulousain | European Champions Cup | Stade Matmut-Atlantique |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 29. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.