Bordeaux Begles vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 80.9%draw 2.5%16.6% ToulonToulon 28.3%draw 2.5%69.2% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 76.1%draw 2.5%21.4% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Toulon and 34 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 10 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 33 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours Toulon.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, Toulon 1435 — 478 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles11–0–10Toulon21 meetings, 2015 to 2025 · Toulon by 4.0 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 2.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | Bordeaux Begles 46–7 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-06-21 | Bordeaux Begles 39–24 Toulon | Top 14 | Groupama Stadium |
| 2025-06-01 | Toulon 27–10 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-12-28 | Bordeaux Begles 21–17 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-02-04 | Toulon 32–37 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 21. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.