Bordeaux Begles vs Toulon
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bordeaux Begles 77.3%draw 2.5%20.2% ToulonToulon 62.5%draw 2.5%35.0% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 57.2%draw 2.5%40.3% ToulonEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bordeaux Begles v Toulon, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Toulon and 32 Bordeaux Begles, half of them between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 20 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 9 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bordeaux Begles winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bordeaux Begles, a bar to the left helps Toulon.
Bordeaux Begles 1825, Toulon 1663 — 162 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles12–0–11Toulon23 meetings, 2015 to 2026 · Toulon by 2.9 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bordeaux Begles by 1.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-31 | Toulon 27–22 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2025-12-21 | Bordeaux Begles 46–7 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2025-06-21 | Bordeaux Begles 39–24 Toulon | Top 14 | Groupama Stadium |
| 2025-06-01 | Toulon 27–10 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade Mayol |
| 2024-12-28 | Bordeaux Begles 21–17 Toulon | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 23. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.