Bordeaux Begles vs US Montauban
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Bordeaux Begles 90.6%draw 2.5%6.9% US MontaubanBordeaux Begles 87.1%draw 2.5%10.4% US MontaubanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bordeaux Begles wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 1 Bordeaux Begles and 41 Bordeaux Begles, with the middle run at 14 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 37 and 84 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 30-16 on a tight afternoon and 42-28 on an open one.
Why Bordeaux Begles are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bordeaux Begles, negative favours US Montauban.
Bordeaux Begles 1913, US Montauban 824 — 1089 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Bordeaux Begles are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles1–0–0US Montauban1 meeting, 2025 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 47.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-20 | Bordeaux Begles 71–24 US Montauban | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.