Bordeaux Begles vs Vannes
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Vannes host Bordeaux Begles on Saturday 7 November at Stade de la Rabine, Vannes, so Vannes are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bordeaux Begles 86.2%draw 2.5%11.3% VannesVannes 30.1%draw 2.5%67.4% Bordeaux BeglesBordeaux Begles 78.2%draw 2.5%19.3% VannesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Vannes v Bordeaux Begles, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Vannes wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 28 Bordeaux Begles and 9 Vannes, half of them between 16 Bordeaux Begles and 2 Vannes, with the middle run at 6 Bordeaux Begles.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 23-17 on a tight afternoon and 34-28 on an open one.
Why Vannes are not favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Vannes winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Vannes, a bar to the left helps Bordeaux Begles.
Vannes 1280, Bordeaux Begles 1825 — 544 points, favouring Bordeaux Begles
Vannes are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bordeaux Begles2–0–0Vannes2 meetings, 2024 to 2025 · Bordeaux Begles by 19.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-06-07 | Bordeaux Begles 59–28 Vannes | Top 14 | Stade Chaban-Delmas |
| 2024-11-23 | Vannes 29–37 Bordeaux Begles | Top 14 | Stade de la Rabine |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.