Bristol Rugby vs Bulls
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 50.3%draw 2.5%47.2% BullsBulls 78.6%draw 2.5%18.9% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 32.0%draw 2.5%65.5% BullsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Bulls, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 Bulls and 17 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 8 Bulls and 8 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at level.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 75 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-31 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Bulls.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Bulls 1862 — 100 points, favouring Bulls
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby1–0–1Bulls2 meetings, 2024 to 2026 · Bulls by 1.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Bulls 49–61 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Loftus Versfeld |
| 2024-01-13 | Bristol Rugby 17–31 Bulls | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.