Bristol Rugby vs Cardiff Blues
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 69.5%draw 2.5%28.0% Cardiff BluesCardiff Blues 63.1%draw 2.5%34.4% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 52.3%draw 2.5%45.2% Cardiff BluesEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Cardiff Blues, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Cardiff Blues and 24 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 2 Cardiff Blues and 14 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 5 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-17 on a tight afternoon and 33-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Cardiff Blues.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Cardiff Blues 1645 — 116 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby0–0–2Cardiff Blues2 meetings, 2016 to 2017 · Cardiff Blues by 14.5 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2017-01-21 | Cardiff Blues 37–21 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Cardiff Arms Park |
| 2016-10-14 | Bristol Rugby 20–33 Cardiff Blues | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.