Bristol Rugby vs Clermont Auvergne
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 77.7%draw 2.5%19.8% Clermont AuvergneClermont Auvergne 48.4%draw 2.5%49.1% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 65.4%draw 2.5%32.1% Clermont AuvergneEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Clermont Auvergne, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 6 Clermont Auvergne and 32 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 1 Bristol Rugby and 20 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 25-16 on a tight afternoon and 36-27 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Clermont Auvergne.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Clermont Auvergne 1466 — 296 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby0–0–3Clermont Auvergne3 meetings, 2020 to 2025 · Clermont Auvergne by 9.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Clermont Auvergne 33–26 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel Michelin |
| 2023-03-31 | Bristol Rugby 26–33 Clermont Auvergne | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2020-12-12 | Bristol Rugby 38–51 Clermont Auvergne | European Champions Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.