Bristol Rugby vs Exeter Chiefs
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby host Exeter Chiefs on Saturday 24 October at Ashton Gate, Bristol, so Bristol Rugby are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bristol Rugby 64.0%draw 2.5%33.5% Exeter ChiefsExeter Chiefs 55.7%draw 2.5%41.8% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 53.1%draw 2.5%44.4% Exeter ChiefsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Exeter Chiefs, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Exeter Chiefs and 22 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 4 Exeter Chiefs and 12 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 4 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 22-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Exeter Chiefs.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Exeter Chiefs 1716 — 46 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby7–0–11Exeter Chiefs18 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Exeter Chiefs by 3.2 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Exeter Chiefs by 2.7 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Exeter Chiefs 3–8 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2025-10-11 | Bristol Rugby 18–14 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-03-22 | Bristol Rugby 52–38 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-10-12 | Exeter Chiefs 35–40 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Sandy Park |
| 2023-12-29 | Bristol Rugby 14–24 Exeter Chiefs | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.