Bristol Rugby vs Gloucester Rugby
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Gloucester Rugby 55.0%draw 2.5%42.5% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 12 Gloucester Rugby and 25 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Gloucester Rugby.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Gloucester Rugby 1520 — 68 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
18 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 4.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bristol Rugby by 5.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-17 | Bristol Rugby 53–12 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-10-17 | Gloucester Rugby 34–49 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2025-03-29 | Gloucester Rugby 53–28 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
| 2024-09-27 | Bristol Rugby 41–44 Gloucester Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-03-30 | Gloucester Rugby 24–33 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Kingsholm |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.