Bristol Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% HarlequinsHarlequins 55.2%draw 2.5%42.3% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 59.4%draw 2.5%38.1% HarlequinsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Harlequins, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 9 Harlequins and 28 Bristol Rugby, half of them between level and 17 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 7 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 74 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-17 on a tight afternoon and 35-28 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Harlequins.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Harlequins 1542 — 220 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby10–0–9Harlequins19 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 3.1 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bristol Rugby by 8.6 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bristol Rugby 14–18 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-12-20 | Harlequins 14–40 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2025-05-31 | Bristol Rugby 52–26 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-11-29 | Harlequins 24–48 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-05-18 | Harlequins 28–53 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.