Bristol Rugby vs Harlequins
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Harlequins 66.3%draw 2.5%31.2% Bristol RugbyEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Harlequins and 22 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 2 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-18 on a tight afternoon and 31-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Harlequins.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Harlequins 1668 — 80 points, favouring Harlequins
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
18 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 1.8 on average
Last 10: 5–0–5 · Bristol Rugby by 5.3 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-28 | Bristol Rugby 14–18 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Principality Stadium |
| 2025-12-20 | Harlequins 14–40 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Allianz Stadium |
| 2024-11-29 | Harlequins 24–48 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2024-05-18 | Harlequins 28–53 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Twickenham Stoop |
| 2023-10-28 | Bristol Rugby 21–23 Harlequins | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.