Bristol Rugby vs La Rochelle
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 53.9%draw 2.5%43.6% La RochelleLa Rochelle 72.7%draw 2.5%24.8% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 37.5%draw 2.5%60.0% La RochelleEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v La Rochelle, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 16 La Rochelle and 18 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 7 La Rochelle and 9 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-20 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps La Rochelle.
Bristol Rugby 1762, La Rochelle 1820 — 59 points, favouring La Rochelle
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby1–0–3La Rochelle4 meetings, 2018 to 2024 · La Rochelle by 13.8 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-14 | La Rochelle 35–7 Bristol Rugby | European Champions Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2019-03-31 | La Rochelle 39–15 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2018-12-15 | La Rochelle 3–13 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Marcel-Deflandre |
| 2018-12-08 | Bristol Rugby 22–35 La Rochelle | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.