Bristol Rugby vs Leicester Tigers
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby host Leicester Tigers on Friday 30 October at Ashton Gate, Bristol, so Bristol Rugby are at home. Everything below this card is that orientation.
Bristol Rugby 60.6%draw 2.5%36.9% Leicester TigersLeicester Tigers 61.9%draw 2.5%35.6% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 48.0%draw 2.5%49.5% Leicester TigersEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Leicester Tigers, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 13 Leicester Tigers and 22 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 5 Leicester Tigers and 13 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 3 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 71 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 21-18 on a tight afternoon and 32-29 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Leicester Tigers.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Leicester Tigers 1800 — 38 points, favouring Leicester Tigers
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby9–1–8Leicester Tigers18 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 0.7 on average
Last 10: 4–1–5 · Leicester Tigers by 2.4 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-22 | Leicester Tigers 33–19 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2025-09-28 | Bristol Rugby 42–24 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-04-20 | Bristol Rugby 19–36 Leicester Tigers | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2024-12-21 | Leicester Tigers 24–54 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
| 2024-04-27 | Leicester Tigers 19–21 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | Mattioli Woods Welford Road Stadium |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 18. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.