Bristol Rugby vs Northampton Saints
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 51.8%draw 2.5%45.7% Northampton SaintsNorthampton Saints 75.6%draw 2.5%21.9% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 36.3%draw 2.5%61.2% Northampton SaintsEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Northampton Saints, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 14 Northampton Saints and 22 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 6 Northampton Saints and 10 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 1 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 72 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 20-19 on a tight afternoon and 31-30 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Northampton Saints.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Northampton Saints 1957 — 195 points, favouring Northampton Saints
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby11–0–8Northampton Saints19 meetings, 2016 to 2026 · Bristol Rugby by 2.3 on average
Last 10: 6–0–4 · Bristol Rugby by 3.9 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-03 | Bristol Rugby 41–26 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2026-05-15 | Northampton Saints 94–33 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2025-11-29 | Bristol Rugby 46–12 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
| 2025-04-26 | Northampton Saints 48–31 Bristol Rugby | Gallagher Premiership | cinch Stadium at Franklin's Gardens |
| 2024-10-25 | Bristol Rugby 31–23 Northampton Saints | Gallagher Premiership | Ashton Gate |
The 5 most recent meetings; the record above covers all 19. None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.