Bristol Rugby vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-10-19.
Bristol Rugby 84.0%draw 2.5%13.5% PerpignanPerpignan 43.1%draw 2.5%54.4% Bristol RugbyBristol Rugby 69.9%draw 2.5%27.6% PerpignanEach figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
Make it your call
Pick your own scoreline for Bristol Rugby v Perpignan, see where it lands among the simulated runs, and save a card to post.
Build a shareable predictionHow the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
- Middle 8 in 10
- Middle half
- Median
- Level
- Average
Eight runs in ten finished between 2 Perpignan and 34 Bristol Rugby, half of them between 3 Bristol Rugby and 21 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 11 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 32 and 76 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 26-15 on a tight afternoon and 37-26 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
How the model arrives at the chance of Bristol Rugby winning. It starts at an even 50%, and each line below adds to that or takes from it, in percentage points (pp): a bar to the right helps Bristol Rugby, a bar to the left helps Perpignan.
Bristol Rugby 1762, Perpignan 1424 — 338 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, past meetings between the two sides, and days of rest. It has a limit, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
Bristol Rugby2–0–0Perpignan2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Bristol Rugby by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Bristol Rugby 33–19 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2022-12-09 | Perpignan 5–19 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.