Bristol Rugby vs Perpignan
What the model says about this fixture, at either ground and at a neutral one, with the record behind it. Ratings as at 2026-08-24.
Each figure is 5,000 simulations of this fixture. The score is where those runs are centred, not a likely scoreline — a rugby result is spread far too widely for any single one to be likely.
How the runs finished
Winning margin across 5,000 simulations of this fixture. Bars right of the centre are Bristol Rugby wins; the faded bars at each end hold everything beyond 75 points.
Margin percentiles
Eight runs in ten finished between 4 Perpignan and 34 Bristol Rugby, with the middle run at 9 Bristol Rugby.
Those are gaps rather than scorelines. How much scoring the match produces is drawn separately — between 31 and 73 points in eight runs out of ten — so one bar covers many scores. The middle run above is 24-15 on a tight afternoon and 35-26 on an open one.
Why Bristol Rugby are favoured
Starting from an even match and adding what the model reads, in percentage points of win probability. Positive favours Bristol Rugby, negative favours Perpignan.
Bristol Rugby 1588, Perpignan 1346 — 242 points, favouring Bristol Rugby
Bristol Rugby are at home
Recent results, head-to-head record and rest days, as the XGBoost heads weigh them. Deliberately capped, so it can nudge the rating but never overrule it.
Head to head
2 meetings, 2022 to 2023 · Bristol Rugby by 14.0 on average
| Date | Match | Competition | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-01-20 | Bristol Rugby 33–19 Perpignan | European Challenge Cup | Ashton Gate |
| 2022-12-09 | Perpignan 5–19 Bristol Rugby | European Challenge Cup | Stade Aime Giral |
None of this feeds the forecast: both ratings already contain these results.